Data on Adaptive Learning Technology Trends
Google trends demonstrate the popularity of adaptive learning overtime. Adaptive learning and adaptive technology started with intense enthusiasm followed by a calmer but stable interest.
This is also reflected by the Gartner hype cycle, which analyzes and charts the ups and downs of technologies. Based on the 2019 Hype Cycle of Education shown in the graph below, adaptive learning is sliding into the Trough of Disillusionment, "where interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver. Producers of the technology shake out or fail" (Gartner). Investments only continue if surviving providers improve their products to the satisfaction of early adopters.
Adaptive learning platforms
According to the results of the 2019 Learning and Development (L&D) Global Sentiment Survey, personalization/adaptive delivery is a top trend among L&D professionals. This is a one-question survey that has been conducted every year since 2004. Voters answer the question: What will be hot in workplace L&D in 2019?
It is noted in the report that the majority of voters are probably innovators and early adopters and likely not representative of the entire L&D population. Nevertheless, after running the survey 6 years, it is evident that the results are an early indicator of interest in the wider population. What is popular on the survey one year frequently becomes a topic of general interest the next year or the year after that.
What is most interesting about the 2019 results is that the top 3 options all revolve around data: personalization/adaptive delivery, artificial intelligence, and learning analytics. The results have never shown a focus like this before and the author claims that this most certainly reflects a “significant shift in outlook" (Taylor, 2019). The author does state that change in L&D is slow and the current enthusiasm around data will likely take many years to manifest itself in everyday life of L&D. The challenge for technology companies is to “cross the chasm" (Taylor, 2019).
Below are the 2019 L&D Global Survey results next to the results of the 2019 ETEC 522 Emerging Markets Poll results. Notice the similarities in the top 8. A data focus is also reflected in the ETEC 522 results. In the Emerging Markets Poll, EdTech graduate students are asked to vote on the emerging technologies they believe are the most opportunistic for the general, global future of teaching and learning.
2019 Global L&D Survey
1. personalized/adaptive delivery*
2. artificial intelligence*
3. learning analytics*
4. collaborative/social learning
5. microlearning
6. learning experience platforms
7. virtual and augmented reality
8. mobile delivery
2019 ETEC 522 Poll
1. artificial intelligence*
2. mobile learning
3. virtual and augmented reality
4. game-based learning
5. adaptive software*
6. personalized learning
7. experience design
8. learning analytics*
*options that are data-driven
The Players
According to the Harvard Business Review, the top players own the lion’s share of the adaptive systems market, with McGraw-Hill’s ALEKS software leading the top.
A majority of Adaptive Learning Software providers originate in North America or Europe. According to ResearchFox, top vendors include:
McGraw Hill
Education
(U.S.)
Average K-12 student learning success rates with ALEKS are around 90%
The Buyers
Individual instructors, K-12 and Higher Ed (institution-wide implementations), and corporate learning.
Educational institutions are showing the highest adoption trends; they are dominating the market because of an increasing demand in the usage of cloud-based technology in schools and colleges.
The End-Users
All types of learners, instructors, managers, IT personnel.
Where is it going?
The global adaptive learning software market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 30% during the 2018-2022 forecast period (ResearchFox, 2018). Adaptive Learning Software companies are projected to have significant growth in the upcoming years because of “increased penetration of adaptive learning methods, leading to low cost and increasing customized learning” (ResearchFox, 2018). “Vendor offerings and libraries of course materials are growing, making it easier for faculty to obtain off-the-shelf course content for adaptive learning applications” (Educause, 2017). As with other technologies based on data and analytics, adaptive learning software will improve as more data are collected on students.
There are 3 types of adaptive systems: closed (off-the-shelf course content), open (user has complete control of content decisions) and hybrid. There is a push toward the hybrid model "because it balances the time needed to develop an adaptive learning course with the flexibility for faculty to control content and assessments” (Educause, 2017).
Technavio research analysts claim that the top 3 drivers contributing to growth in the adaptive learning software market are: increasing need for personalized learning, inclusion of analytics and rising government regulations in adaptive learning.
Due to the many benefits of adaptive learning and easy integration with existing systems, governments are employing strategic initiatives to incorporate adaptive learning technology in the education system. The U.S. Department of Education has developed a National Education Technology Plan (NETP); this plan includes the use of adaptive learning and blended learning approaches because of its ability to simultaneously teach and assess learners.
North America leads the global market, where the majority of key adaptive technology providers reside. However, “the Asia Pacific market is expected to witness highest adoption rate due to greater scope of growth opportunities and increasing demand of cloud-based deployment” (ResearchFox, 2018).
Top Market Drivers
Characteristics of Successful Implementation
To succeed, adaptive learning software providers must build an adaptive Rubik’s cube:
“Brilliantly crafted technology, coupled with a deep reservoir of high-quality content, integrated with shrewd assessment tools, embedded with skilled teacher training at each site -- all at scale to secure market share, sustainability, profits and plugged-in implementation at every campus"
-Ubell, 2019